After Iceland: Who is next?

Business Monitor International sendir félagsmönnum sínum eftirfarandi:

I am writing to you today as head of country risk to let you know that we have just published a brand new special report After Iceland: Who Is Next. The Report looks at the effect that the worldwide banking and economic crisis will have upon emerging market countries across the globe.
Iceland was the first country to enter the firing line, and BMI looks at the lessons learnt, and assesses which states are at risk of following Iceland into economic meltdown and potentially debt default. In compiling this report, BMI has drawn upon its 25 years of experience in analysing emerging market economies, and its propriety in house five-year economic forecasts and risk ratings on 170 countries worldwide, as well as in house expertise in political and financial market analysis.

Benefits of the Report:
The world economy is becoming more volatile. Against this backdrop, businesses are finding forward planning more difficult, governments are scrambling to shore up their domestic economies, and banks are being exposed to ever higher risks. Not least amongst these dangers is the risk that governments may be forced to default on their international debt obligations.

Sovereign default not only affects funds and investors holding government foreign currency debt instruments. Instead, if the government is unable to service its obligations, banks and corporates will struggle to access foreign currency as well. In short, any business operating in a country at risk of default has good cause to be concerned.

To help businesses and governments plan for these potential risks, BMI has brought together its expertise in macro-economic forecasting, political risk analysis and financial markets to assess the risk of default in a number of key countries, including Pakistan, Ukraine, Bulgaria and Lebanon.

Report Coverage:
The report looks first at what has happened in Iceland, before going on to analyse a global backdrop against which further EM defaults could take place: we conclude that a shrinking US current account and slowing growth both there and in the eurozone (with special focus on Germany) will hit EM external positions, undermining their ability to pay down debt burdens and eroding foreign exchange reserve positions.

We then take a look at a number of case studies from all over the EM world – Pakistan, Argentina, Venezuela, Ecuador, Lebanon, Estonia, Latvia, Bulgaria - examining the extent of their vulnerability, and asking what it would take for them to go down the Icelandic route. We are most concerned about Argentina, Ukraine, Latvia and Pakistan.